Semiconductor sales reached their highest level last year despite witnessing a slowdown during the year’s second half. The slowdown was primarily due to the decline in demand from the end-user markets because of macroeconomic headwinds.
According to Gartner, global semiconductor revenues will decline 11.2% in 2023. Popular chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is also witnessing a slowdown in demand. According to sources, the company, to control costs, has asked its major suppliers to delay the delivery of chipmaking equipment.
Although the long-term growth prospects of the semiconductor industry look bright, the near-term headwinds will continue to put pressure on the chip industry in the short term. Gartner’s Practice VP Richard Gordon said, “As economic headwinds persist, weak end-market electronics demand is spreading from consumers to businesses, creating an uncertain investment environment.”
“In addition, an oversupply of chips, which is elevating inventories and reducing chip prices, is accelerating the decline of the semiconductor market this year,” he added. In July, TSM, a major supplier to smartphone giant Apple Inc. (AAPL), forecasted that it would witness a 10% drop in sales in 2023, and its investment spending would be at the lower end of its estimate of $32 billion and $36 billion.
TSM CEO C.C. Wei highlighted that the decline in demand would be mostly due to a tepid recovery in China, soft demand in the end market, and a weak global economic scenario. Although the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips is likely to remain strong, it is unlikely to offset the softer demand in the end markets due to declining sales of smartphones, personal computers, laptops, etc.
Degroof Petercam’s analyst Michael Roeg said, “There has been a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence and the implications for the semiconductor industry. However, the strength in demand for AI chips is not strong enough to compensate (for) what is happening in other segments.”
After global demand for consumer electronics spiked during the pandemic, companies had stockpiled chips to meet the high demand. However, as the demand slowed down in the end markets due to high inflation, companies were stuck with excess inventories, and this led to a fall in the demand for chips, followed by a decline in their prices.
TSM’s CFO Wendell Huang said, “Moving into the third quarter 2023, we expect our business to be supported by the strong ramp of our 3-nanomenter technologies, partially offset by customers’ continued inventory adjustment.”
AAPL, a major TSM customer, announced its latest iPhone series with the cutting-edge 3-nanometer chip but did not raise prices, indicating softness in the smartphone market. AAPL is currently facing trouble in a key market like China as the Chinese government banned some government employees from using iPhones at work.
Furthermore, smartphone maker Huawei came up with the Mate 60 series, which utilizes an advanced chip made by Chinese chipmaker SMIC. All these factors might put pressure on iPhone sales this year, piling further pressure on TSM.
Moreover, TSM is facing delays at its Arizona plant. The company was forced to push back production at the plant by a year to 2025 as it faced difficulty recruiting workers and pushback from unions due to its efforts to bring workers from Taiwan. After investing heavily in expanding its capacity, the company is looking at a slower increase in capital expenditure in the coming years.
As TSM’s headwinds are expected to continue, fundamentally stable chip stocks Infineon Technologies AG (IFNNY), STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM), and ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (IMOS) might benefit.
Let’s discuss these stocks in detail.
Infineon Technologies AG (IFNNY)
Headquartered in Neubiberg, Germany, IFNNY designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductors and related system solutions worldwide.
On August 3, 2023, IFNNY announced its decision to expand its Kulim fab over and above the original investment announced in February 2022. The company will build the world’s largest 200-millimeter SiC (silicon carbide) Power Fab. The expansion is backed by new design wins in automotive and industrial applications for about five billion euros and about one billion euros in pre-payments.
The company will additionally invest up to €5 billion in Kulim during the second construction phase for Module Three. The investment will lead to an annual SiC revenue potential of about €7 billion by the end of the decade, together with the planned 200-millimeter SiC conversion of Villach and Kulim.
IFNNY’s CEO Jochen Hanebeck said, “The market for silicon carbide shows accelerating growth, not only in automotive but also in a broad range of industrial applications such as solar, energy storage, and high-power EV charging. With the Kulim expansion, we will secure our leadership position in this market.”
IFNNY’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 26.1% over the past three years. Its EBITDA grew at a CAGR of 45.7% over the past three years. In addition, its EPS grew at a CAGR of 96% in the same time frame.
In terms of trailing-12-month net income margin, IFNNY’s 19.13% is 840.7% higher than the 2.03% industry average. Likewise, its 35.32% trailing-12-month EBITDA margin is 285.9% higher than the industry average of 9.15%. Furthermore, the stock’s trailing-12-month Capex/Sales came in at 15.52%, compared to the industry average of 2.42%.
For the third quarter ended June 30, 2023, IFNNY’s revenue increased 13% year-over-year to €4.09 billion ($4.37 billion). Its adjusted gross margin came in at 46.2%, compared to 45.4% in the prior-year quarter. The company’s profit for the period rose 60.7% year-over-year to €831 million ($887.97 million). Also, its adjusted EPS came in at €0.68, representing an increase of 38.8% year-over-year.
Analysts expect IFNNY’s revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2023, to increase 2% year-over-year to $4.37 billion. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
Based in Geneva, Switzerland, STM designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through the Automotive and Discrete Group, Analog, MEMS, and Sensors Group; and Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group segments.
STM’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 21.6% over the past three years. Its EBIT grew at a CAGR of 65.7% over the past three years. In addition, its net income grew at a CAGR of 69.5% in the same time frame.
In terms of trailing-12-month net income margin, STM’s 27.45% is significantly higher than the 2.03% industry average. Likewise, its 29.78% trailing-12-month EBIT margin is 559.7% higher than the industry average of 4.51%. Furthermore, the stock’s trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio came in at 0.88x, compared to the industry average of 0.62x.
STM’s net revenues for the second quarter ended July 1, 2023, increased 12.7% year-over-year to $4.33 billion. Its net cash from operating activities rose 24.1% year-over-year to $1.31 billion. The company’s net income rose 15.5% year-over-year to $1 billion. Also, its EPS came in at $1.06, representing an increase of 15.2% year-over-year.
Street expects STM’s revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2023, to increase 1.7% year-over-year to $4.38 billion. Its EPS for fiscal 2023 is expected to increase 3.3% year-over-year to $4.33. It surpassed the Street EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (IMOS)
Headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, IMOS researches, develops, manufactures, and sells high-integration and high-precision integrated circuits and related assembly and testing services. It operates through Testing, Assembly, Testing, and Assembly for LCD, OLED, and Other Display Panel Driver Semiconductors, Bumping; and Others segments.
IMOS’s total assets grew at a CAGR of 8.7% over the past three years. Its Tang Book Value grew at a CAGR of 6.8% over the past three years. In addition, its revenue grew at a CAGR of 2.9% over the past five years.
In terms of trailing-12-month net income margin, IMOS’ 8.63% is 324.4% higher than the 2.03% industry average. Likewise, its 29.37% trailing-12-month EBITDA margin is 220.9% higher than the industry average of 9.15%. Furthermore, the stock’s trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 15.32%, higher than the industry average of 2.42%.
For the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2023, IMOS’ revenue came in at NT$5.44 billion ($169.84 million). Its net non-operating income came in at NT$222.40 million ($6.94 million. The company’s net profit attributable to equity holders of the company came in at NT$628.50 million ($19.62 million). Also, its EPS came in at NT$0.86.
For the quarter ending September 30, 2023, IMOS’ revenue is expected to increase 6.9% year-over-year to $176.86 million.
