Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2024 09:25:00 PM

Note: I used to post this monthly, but I stopped during the COVID-19 pandemic. I’ve received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the ’80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the ’80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush and Trump only served one term.

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early ’80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.   And there was a pandemic related recession in 2020.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The previous top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.  

The first graph is for private employment only.

Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,970,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 377,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,833,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).  During Trump’s term (Orange), the economy lost 2,135,000 private sector jobs.

In the first 38 months of President Biden’s term, the economy has added 1,482,000 public sector jobs (about 93% of public job growth has been for state and local governments, and about 56% for education).

And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden’s term, just ahead of the number during Reagan’s 2nd term.  Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama’s first term.