by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2024 09:15:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through August 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 5.2% year-over-year in August, up from 5.0 in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are slightly below the Fed’s target on a 3-month basis. Note: There appears to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 1.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.1%
Core minus Housing: 1.5%
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