Double bubble trouble in China
The deleveraging of the Chinese economy has always seemed likely to be a long and troublesome saga, lasting many years or even decades if it is to prove successful. The…
Yellen shoots for ‘equilibrium’ interest rates
Getty Images The financial markets listened to Janet Yellen’s speech on “normalising” monetary policy last Friday, shrugged, and moved on largely unaffected. It was, indeed, a dovish speech, of the…
Global growth report card: world slowdown causes concern
Last month, the global report card concluded that world economic activity was expanding at a roughly constant growth rate, with a slowdown in the US and China being offset by…
Who is right about the equilibrium interest rate?
The equilibrium real interest rate continues to lie at the heart of discussions about economic policy in the US and elsewhere. Ben Bernanke has written that the equilibrium rate, and…
How ‘patient’ is Yellen?
When Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen gives evidence to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, she has an opportunity to speak above the heads of the financial markets to Congress…
The Fed’s global responsibilities
When the Federal Reserve starts to raise US interest rates later this year, there will be a major shift in the global monetary regime. Although San Francisco Fed President John…
Is the oil crash over?
Oil prices have rebounded by $16 a barrel since the low point was reached at $45 a month ago, and investors are already wondering whether the worst is over for…