Bitcoin price might be steady at press time but remains under pressure. One trader predicts a bearish month according to the BTC model – is it true?
The miner capitulation, made worse by the deluge of coins from Germany, the United States Department of Justice, and Mt. Gox, dashed all hopes of the coin soaring, breaking $72,000.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a bearish formation, which will be the state of affairs as long as prices remain below vital liquidation zones.
In the short term, the area of interest is between the $62,500 and $63,000 zone.
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On the upper end, assuming buyers take the lead, a breach of $70,000 will be a statement of trend continuation.
Assuming bears take over, any breach of $56,500, or the lower end of June and July 2024, could lead to even more losses.
More Pain For Bitcoin Holders In September?
If anything, this may be the state of affairs in September.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to fall in September before steadily recovering throughout Q4 2024.
To illustrate, the coin recovered strongly after September 2023, racing to as high as $73,800 in March 2024.
Taking to X, one analyst, using the Monte Carlo simulation model, predicts BTC to close the month at $55,000.
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However, based on this analysis, BTC will likely plunge to as low as $44,000 while rallying to $66,000 in September.
This forecast, the analyst said, is based on historical daily returns for September.
Whether this will be the case remains to be seen.
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The Bullish Impact of Spot ETFs
What’s different between then and now is that institutions increasingly shape Bitcoin prices.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and Australia means institutions are major players, out-competing retailers responsible for driving prices in the past.
As of September 3, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers in the United States manage over $53 billion, or 4.6% of all BTC in circulation.
As prices recover, more Wall Street players will be keen to gain exposure, further influencing price action.
Binance Traders Are Bearish, Will Bulls Take Over?
However, it is emerging that most traders on Binance, the world’s largest exchange, are bearish, expecting prices to tank.
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Even so, the Binance Funding Rate is neutral, meaning that though the bearish sentiment exists, the market is mostly balanced.
It is also emerging that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is in bearish territory.
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Since BTC’s market value is lower than its realized value, there could be some element of undervaluation.
For this reason, some traders are hopeful, expecting a sharp turnaround that could lift higher prices, just like it did in January 2020, correcting the current undervaluation.
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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.
