Tuesday, June 30, 2015
The Euro suffered heavy losses Sunday night, as Greece pondered whether or not the country will remain part of the currency union. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers that Greece would remain part of the Euro for the time being, even if voters rejected austerity. This assurance from Mr. Schaeuble sparked a rebound in the Euro currency, which actually finished the day higher. Greece is expected to withhold a $1.7 billion payment to the IMF, which will leave the country without the protection of the bailout program. At this point, the whole Greece situation has irked many traders, who have grown tired of the soap opera regarding their payments as well as the overconfidence from Greek officials with regard to not being thrown out of the currency union.
Fundamentals
Traders were expecting to get some sort of near-term resolution to the Greece debt payment this week. Instead there is at least another week of waiting. On the economic front, data from both the US and the Eurozone has been very mixed lately, which has given currency traders very little to work with. German data continues to lead the way in Europe, with unemployment and retail sales data exceeding expectations. Employment data in the US could trigger a bit more activity in the currency markets. US jobs data has been a bright spot for the economy, and more positive data could put pressure on the Euro. The Federal Reserve has been more cryptic in the language of its public statements of late, which is why traders are looking forward to next week’s release of the FOMC minutes.
Technical Notes
Turning to the chart, we see the September Euro currency contract continuing to trade in a tight range between 1.1000 and 1.1500. With the exception of yesterday, daily trading ranges have also been tightening. This could be a sign that the market is ready to break out of the range, but further consolidation is certainly not out of the question. The oscillators are giving neutral readings as well.
Rob Kurzatkowski, Senior Commodity
SOURCE: FuturesBlogs – Read entire story here.
